A Sample Size of One

I took statistics more than 30 years ago, but I remember enough to know that a sample size (“n”) of one has limited or no real predictive value.

Because I have been in this role a long time, my colleagues often tell me that what has always worked in the past cannot be expected to continue in the future. Since I am the first and only Town Manager in our community, we have no experience with transition. My colleagues say that the future can’t be predicted by a sample size of one. I’m not sure I agree, but more on that later.

Until the early 1990s, our Town structure consisted of a Select Board (actually, it was a Board of Selectmen until 2018) and an “Executive Secretary.” My predecessor was appointed to be the first Town Administrator – a position that carried more responsibility than the Executive Secretary title. I was appointed to be the Town Administrator in 2001, and in 2005, our Town transitioned to a Town Manager structure. The Town Manager has a greater role in contracting, budgeting, and staffing. So there have been two Town Administrators (a sample size of two!) and only one Town Manager here in Needham.

I was talking to a mentor a few weeks ago about the struggle I have when people don’t assume good intent in the running of our Town. He told me that there is a correlation between length of stay and ability to absorb criticism. I have to admit this is true. The fact that I have worked here most of my adult life is my choice, and I have to live with the result. (I do think assuming good intent should be our world view, but I digress).

I have never done it, but I can imagine the ease of working in a new community and not bearing the weight of 30 years of history. “Of course we can change that policy!” I would say, rather than, “Well, in 1999 we had to adopt that policy to deal with some personnel issue of a bygone era, when employers took a much more paternalistic view of employees.” It sounds heavenly.

I have been ruminating on the pros and cons of staying in the same place a long time:

• Pro: I know a lot of people.
• Con: People remember every mistake I made (and the many bad hair experiments).
• Pro: I can confidently interpret the intent of a document because it is highly likely I wrote it.
• Con: Outdated policies also bear my name.
• Pro: I have built a team that is crushing it.
• Con: I feel the loss of many people who have retired or passed away.
• Pro: I have been part of the rebuilding of our Town.
• Con: I am stuck with historical decisions, and it can be hard to make changes.

Just before the Pandemic, I was recognized by our Chamber of Commerce for 30 years of service. I was honored but hesitant – and sure enough, I got cards and flowers delivered in honor of my “retirement.” I complained about it enough that one of our family members held up this sign at the dinner.

Back to the sample size of one. I think that systems wear grooves into any organization, and that they last beyond one leader. They are more likely to be improved by new leaders, and the unnecessary steps will fade away. We’ll have to wait to find out – I’m not done yet.

How about you? Have you had a long tenure or multiple roles? What are your pros and cons?

Let’s practice, examining constructive feedback and using it to improve (two of my least favorite activities).